BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American White Pelican In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesWetland birds

American White Pelican in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 443% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+443%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American White Pelican has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 443% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

American White Pelican In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 62% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.76–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+62%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.76–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 62% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.76–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.00.623.4
20272.00.653.4
20282.10.693.5
20292.10.723.5
20302.20.763.5

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording American White Pelican in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA702021
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA432025
KayceeWYOMING332025
WinifredMONTANA322023
Two DotMONTANA282025
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA261980
Wheat BasinMONTANA242024
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA242019
NatronaWYOMING241992
ForsythMONTANA212006
Coleman CouleeMONTANA202024
PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA182002
HardingSOUTH-DAKOTA152016
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA141973
Moskee 2WYOMING122019
MayoworthWYOMING112011
Flatwillow 2MONTANA102022
BillWYOMING102018
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA92024
ArdmoreSOUTH-DAKOTA62019
SussexWYOMING62018
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA52017
JordanMONTANA42024
CircleMONTANA42018
ShawmutMONTANA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.