BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American White Pelican In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesWetland birds

American White Pelican in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 795% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+795%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American White Pelican has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 795% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.2 (95% range 0.76–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.76–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.2 (95% range 0.76–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.00.623.4
20262.00.653.4
20272.10.693.5
20282.10.723.5
20292.20.763.5

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording American White Pelican in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Two DotMONTANA722024
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA702021
WinifredMONTANA322023
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA261980
Wheat BasinMONTANA242024
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA242019
NatronaWYOMING241992
ForsythMONTANA212006
PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA182002
KayceeWYOMING182024
HardingSOUTH-DAKOTA152016
DwyerWYOMING152019
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA141973
Moskee 2WYOMING122019
MayoworthWYOMING112011
Flatwillow 2MONTANA102022
BillWYOMING102018
SavageMONTANA92013
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA92024
ArdmoreSOUTH-DAKOTA62019
SussexWYOMING62018
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA52017
JordanMONTANA42024
CircleMONTANA42018
ShawmutMONTANA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.