BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American White Pelican In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauWetland birds

American White Pelican in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 33× on the route-weighted index since 1992.

33×Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American White Pelican has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 33× on the route-weighted index since 1992.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.69–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.69–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.69–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19872029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.482.6
20261.60.532.7
20271.70.582.7
20281.70.642.8
20291.80.692.9

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording American White Pelican in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GuffeyCOLORADO2602024
TarryallCOLORADO552023
Rifle FallsCOLORADO462000
Cochetopa PassCOLORADO282024
KamasUTAH252024
M Warner ResUTAH202022
WaldenCOLORADO142024
Stillwater PassCOLORADO112009
Steamboat L.COLORADO92022
BufordWYOMING92000
San LuisCOLORADO82000
DoylevilleCOLORADO62024
VernalUTAH62011
ComoCOLORADO22013
AngoraCOLORADO22011
BrookhurstWYOMING22022
WarbonnetWYOMING22019
HarmonyCOLORADO12018
Stillwater Pass 2COLORADO12018
JensenUTAH12010
Beck 2UTAH12016
Sybille CynWYOMING12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.