BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American White Pelican In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionWetland birds

American White Pelican in Boreal Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

-70%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American White Pelican has fallen sharply in Boreal Hardwood Transition: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

American White Pelican In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 110% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±171.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+110%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±171.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 110% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±171.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19792030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.190.002.0
20270.180.001.9
20280.170.001.9
20290.160.001.9
20300.140.001.9

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording American White Pelican in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BagleyMINNESOTA202006
BemidjiMINNESOTA131979
Red LakeMINNESOTA112023
Tamarac NwrMINNESOTA112019
Nett LakeMINNESOTA72016
DebsMINNESOTA62024
NebishMINNESOTA52025
BigforkMINNESOTA32013
Crane LakeMINNESOTA22022
WaskishMINNESOTA22019
GlendaleMINNESOTA22022
WarroadMINNESOTA21995
Mille LacsMINNESOTA12019
CohassetMINNESOTA12019
Little ForkMINNESOTA12018
LudeMINNESOTA12021
BlackduckMINNESOTA12014
Cass LakeMINNESOTA12016
Rib LakeWISCONSIN12007
Washington IWISCONSIN12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.