BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American White Pelican In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesWetland birds

American White Pelican in Northern Rockies has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-61%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American White Pelican has fallen sharply in Northern Rockies: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.3 (95% range 0.00–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American White Pelican in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.3 (95% range 0.00–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.004.6
20261.30.004.6
20271.30.004.6
20281.30.004.6
20291.30.004.6

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording American White Pelican in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Neponset ResUTAH2002018
SpartaOREGON531991
Rock RiverWYOMING482022
FontenelleWYOMING402024
AlpineWYOMING372024
Willow Creek 2MONTANA262024
Freeman CreekMONTANA242015
NowoodWYOMING222024
Red RockMONTANA202024
Hells CanyonOREGON181998
YellowstoneWYOMING182022
Prior FlatsWYOMING152015
SweetwaterWYOMING142009
Hebgen LakeMONTANA132024
WilsonWYOMING131994
Flamin GorgeWYOMING122021
Hayden ValWYOMING121986
Crane CreekIDAHO112016
BeaverheadMONTANA112024
Wise RiverMONTANA112017
LeoWYOMING112002
Colter BayWYOMING101998
ShirleyWYOMING92015
OttoWYOMING82023
MidvaleWYOMING82022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.