BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Pipit Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGrassland birds

American Pipit in Alaska has declined: down 42% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

-42%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Pipit Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Pipit in Alaska. See the full index history below.

American Pipit Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, American Pipit in Alaska is projected to fall about 92% by 2030 — from 0.78 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-92%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±115.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Pipit in Alaska is projected to fall about 92% by 2030 — from 0.78 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.130.000.72
20270.110.000.70
20280.090.000.68
20290.080.000.67
20300.060.000.65

American Pipit Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording American Pipit in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cold Bay4520251993
Cold Bay (Short)2519921984
Thompson Pas619831983
Tangle Lakes519871987
Toklat320241982
Cape Nome320072005
Maclaren220171982
Monahan219961996
Council220241993
Happy Valley220232023
Skagway220181994
Teller220241998
Livengood120152010
Nabesna Road119971997
Galbraith L.120242012
Whale Pass120052005
Moose Creek119951995
Mt. Fairplay120091996
Nome120232008
Salmon Lake120172007
Savage120152015
Galena (Short)119871987

American Pipit Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradomontananew-mexicooregonutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.