BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Kestrel In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinBirds of prey

American Kestrel in Great Basin has edged up: up 16% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+16%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
237Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.5 (95% range 0.66–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.66–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.5 (95% range 0.66–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.702.3
20271.50.692.3
20281.50.682.3
20291.50.672.3
20301.50.662.2

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording American Kestrel in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OrdnanceOREGON131979
Scootney ReservoirWASHINGTON122025
PocatelloIDAHO112019
Walker CanNEVADA112024
Carson RiverNEVADA102005
Catlow RimOREGON102025
Cedar HillIDAHO92024
OthelloWASHINGTON91991
HarwoodWASHINGTON91997
DeschutesOREGON82025
CraneOREGON82005
MizpahNEVADA72024
Toiyabe NfNEVADA72024
CalienteNEVADA72025
Harney LakeOREGON72006
PomonaWASHINGTON71999
RavendaleCALIFORNIA62025
BatesIDAHO62023
Ruby ValleyNEVADA62001
JosephOREGON62025
AdrianOREGON62025
Hardware RanchUTAH62018
Moses CouleeWASHINGTON62024
YakimaWASHINGTON62025
SquirrelIDAHO52025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.