BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

American Kestrel in Great Basin has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+1%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
237Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.5 (95% range 0.66–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.66–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.5 (95% range 0.66–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.702.3
20261.50.692.3
20271.50.682.3
20281.50.672.3
20291.50.662.3

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording American Kestrel in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OrdnanceOREGON131979
UmatillaOREGON122023
PocatelloIDAHO112019
Walker CanNEVADA112024
Carson RiverNEVADA102005
Cedar HillIDAHO92024
NixonNEVADA92024
OthelloWASHINGTON91991
NighthawkWASHINGTON92024
HarwoodWASHINGTON91997
BuchananOREGON82024
PendletonOREGON82024
CraneOREGON82005
Catlow RimOREGON82024
Scootney ReservoirWASHINGTON82024
RirieIDAHO72023
MizpahNEVADA72024
Toiyabe NfNEVADA72024
DeschutesOREGON72024
Harney LakeOREGON72006
PomonaWASHINGTON71999
RavendaleCALIFORNIA62024
LikelyCALIFORNIA62024
BatesIDAHO62023
Ruby ValleyNEVADA62001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.