BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Kestrel In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestBirds of prey

American Kestrel in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-40%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 0.33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 0.33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.260.000.70
20270.250.000.69
20280.240.000.68
20290.230.000.68
20300.220.000.67

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording American Kestrel in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlderpointCALIFORNIA102012
YrekaCALIFORNIA62019
CanbyOREGON42025
SalemOREGON42025
GreenOREGON32024
McminnvilleOREGON32025
South ElmaWASHINGTON32023
Pe EllWASHINGTON32025
Sheep MtnALASKA22006
CarrvilleCALIFORNIA21970
Junction CtyCALIFORNIA22007
MccloudCALIFORNIA21985
Offield MtnCALIFORNIA21973
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA22019
UkiahCALIFORNIA22011
WinberryOREGON22017
AdairOREGON22025
DaytonOREGON22025
GarfieldOREGON22023
Secret ValOREGON21997
SantiamOREGON22024
Port AngelesWASHINGTON22025
MontesandWASHINGTON22021
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA12016
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA12005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.