BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

American Kestrel in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-36%Since 1970
80Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 0.45 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2029
0.23Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.6795% range
±65.2%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.260.000.71
20260.250.000.70
20270.240.000.69
20280.230.000.68
20290.230.000.67

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording American Kestrel in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
AlderpointCALIFORNIA102012
YrekaCALIFORNIA62019
ScioOREGON62024
CanbyOREGON52024
McminnvilleOREGON42024
UmpquaOREGON32024
AdairOREGON32024
DaytonOREGON32024
GreenOREGON32024
SalemOREGON32024
South ElmaWASHINGTON32023
Sheep MtnALASKA22006
CarrvilleCALIFORNIA21970
Junction CtyCALIFORNIA22007
MccloudCALIFORNIA21985
Offield MtnCALIFORNIA21973
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA22019
UkiahCALIFORNIA22011
WinberryOREGON22017
GarfieldOREGON22023
Secret ValOREGON21997
SantiamOREGON22024
MontesandWASHINGTON22021
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA12016
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA12005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.