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Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Kestrel In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Birds of prey

American Kestrel in BCR 4 has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

-51%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Kestrel has fallen sharply in BCR 4: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

American Kestrel In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in BCR 4 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in BCR 4 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.020.000.07
20270.020.000.07
20280.020.000.07
20290.020.000.07
20300.020.000.07

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording American Kestrel in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EagleALASKA21997
Birch LakeALASKA22000
Nicholai SlALASKA21994
CircleALASKA12025
Chatanika RALASKA12011
LivengoodALASKA12016
Tower BluffsALASKA12016
NorthwayALASKA12005
MonahanALASKA11987
ToklatALASKA11991
L SalchaALASKA11989
Chena Hot SpALASKA11986
SavageALASKA12012
Hatcher PassALASKA11996
Chena Hot Spring 2ALASKA11999
KachemakALASKA11994
Kanuti CanynALASKA12006
Manley Ht SpALASKA12012
Mt. FairplayALASKA12015
Murphy DomeALASKA12010
Nabesna RoadALASKA12009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.