Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
American Kestrel In BCR 4
American Kestrel in BCR 4 has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1988.
-21%Since 1988
21Routes In Region
25Years
Notable Signals
No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in BCR 4. See the full index history below.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 51% by 2021 — from 0.05 in 2016 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-51%Change by 2021
0.03Projected 2021 index
0.00–0.0895% range
±48.8%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| 2018 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| 2019 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| 2020 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| 2021 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
Routes In BCR 4
| Eagle | ALASKA | 2 | 1997 |
| Circle | ALASKA | 2 | 2012 |
| Birch Lake | ALASKA | 2 | 2000 |
| Nicholai Sl | ALASKA | 2 | 1994 |
| Chatanika R | ALASKA | 1 | 2011 |
| Livengood | ALASKA | 1 | 2016 |
| Tower Bluffs | ALASKA | 1 | 2016 |
| Northway | ALASKA | 1 | 2005 |
| Monahan | ALASKA | 1 | 1987 |
| Toklat | ALASKA | 1 | 1991 |
| L Salcha | ALASKA | 1 | 1989 |
| Chena Hot Sp | ALASKA | 1 | 1986 |
| Savage | ALASKA | 1 | 2012 |
| Hatcher Pass | ALASKA | 1 | 1996 |
| Chena Hot Spring 2 | ALASKA | 1 | 1999 |
| Kachemak | ALASKA | 1 | 1994 |
| Kanuti Canyn | ALASKA | 1 | 2006 |
| Manley Ht Sp | ALASKA | 1 | 2012 |
| Mt. Fairplay | ALASKA | 1 | 2015 |
| Murphy Dome | ALASKA | 1 | 2010 |
| Nabesna Road | ALASKA | 1 | 2009 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.