BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsGeneralists

American Kestrel in Tamaulipan Brushlands has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+1%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Tamaulipan Brushlands. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 160% by 2023 — from 0.08 in 2018 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+160%Change by 2023TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2023 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 160% by 2023 — from 0.08 in 2018 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752023
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20190.210.000.50
20200.210.000.50
20210.210.000.50
20220.210.000.50
20230.220.000.50

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording American Kestrel in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LaredoTEXAS52015
EncinalTEXAS32002
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS32009
CatarinaTEXAS22007
El SauzTEXAS21998
RachalTEXAS11988
Agua NuevaTEXAS12008
ZapataTEXAS11982
Mirando CityTEXAS12008
GuerraTEXAS12009
Encinal 2TEXAS12018
SejitaTEXAS12009
Pedro CreekTEXAS12005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.