BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

American Kestrel in Chihuahuan Desert has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-15%Since 1970
41Routes In Region
54Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.62 (95% range 0.11–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029
0.62Projected 2029 index
0.11–1.195% range
±99%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.600.101.1
20260.610.101.1
20270.610.101.1
20280.610.111.1
20290.620.111.1

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording American Kestrel in Chihuahuan Desert.
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO102019
MesillaNEW-MEXICO72000
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO31977
CornudasTEXAS32018
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS32024
DemingNEW-MEXICO21969
Red RockNEW-MEXICO22016
PinonNEW-MEXICO22024
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO22024
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO22024
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO22024
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO22024
SlaughterTEXAS22021
Ft. DavisTEXAS22023
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO12021
RoswellNEW-MEXICO12013
GageNEW-MEXICO12016
JornadaNEW-MEXICO12023
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO12023
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO12010
RodeoNEW-MEXICO12024
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO12010
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO12022
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO12021
EngleNEW-MEXICO11987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.