BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

American Kestrel in Chihuahuan Desert has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-15%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.62 (95% range 0.11–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.62Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.11–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±99%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.62 (95% range 0.11–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.600.101.1
20260.610.101.1
20270.610.101.1
20280.610.111.1
20290.620.111.1

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording American Kestrel in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO102019
MesillaNEW-MEXICO72000
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO31977
CornudasTEXAS32018
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS32024
DemingNEW-MEXICO21969
Red RockNEW-MEXICO22016
PinonNEW-MEXICO22024
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO22024
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO22024
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO22024
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO22024
SlaughterTEXAS22021
Ft. DavisTEXAS22023
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO12021
RoswellNEW-MEXICO12013
GageNEW-MEXICO12016
JornadaNEW-MEXICO12023
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO12023
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO12010
RodeoNEW-MEXICO12024
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO12010
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO12022
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO12021
EngleNEW-MEXICO11987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.