BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Kestrel In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalBirds of prey

American Kestrel in Sierra Madre Occidental has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-47%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 0.63 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.48Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 0.63 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.570.001.6
20270.550.001.6
20280.530.001.5
20290.500.001.5
20300.480.001.5

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording American Kestrel in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Skull ValleyARIZONA62024
Mormon LakeARIZONA41975
Aztec PeakARIZONA41977
PatagoniaARIZONA32025
WilliamsARIZONA32018
Happy JackARIZONA32024
BlueARIZONA21991
PomereneARIZONA22023
Forest LakesARIZONA22025
PinetopARIZONA22022
Bartlett ResARIZONA22025
AlpineARIZONA22025
SprucedaleARIZONA22025
FlagstaffARIZONA12025
PrescottARIZONA12018
San SimonARIZONA12014
Peña BlancaARIZONA12019
SunizonaARIZONA11997
MaineARIZONA12024
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA12015
CutterARIZONA12014
RedingtonARIZONA12025
AmadoARIZONA12023
SahuaritaARIZONA12016
McnealARIZONA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.