BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

American Kestrel in Sierra Madre Occidental has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-48%Since 1970
35Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 0.94 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.50 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-47%Change by 2029
0.50Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.595% range
±22.2%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.580.001.6
20260.560.001.6
20270.540.001.6
20280.520.001.5
20290.500.001.5

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording American Kestrel in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Skull ValleyARIZONA62024
AlpineARIZONA52023
Mormon LakeARIZONA41975
Aztec PeakARIZONA41977
WilliamsARIZONA32018
Forest LakesARIZONA32024
Happy JackARIZONA32024
BlueARIZONA21991
PomereneARIZONA22023
PatagoniaARIZONA22024
PinetopARIZONA22022
SprucedaleARIZONA22023
ReserveNEW-MEXICO22018
FlagstaffARIZONA12007
PrescottARIZONA12018
San SimonARIZONA12014
Peña BlancaARIZONA12019
SunizonaARIZONA11997
MaineARIZONA12024
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA12015
Bartlett ResARIZONA12021
CutterARIZONA12014
RedingtonARIZONA12021
AmadoARIZONA12023
SahuaritaARIZONA12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.