BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGeneralists

American Kestrel in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has edged up: up 11% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+11%Since 1970
76Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.1 (95% range 0.45–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029
1.1Projected 2029 index
0.45–1.795% range
±42.9%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.10.441.7
20261.10.451.7
20271.10.451.7
20281.10.451.7
20291.10.451.7

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording American Kestrel in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
NilandCALIFORNIA102024
HopeARIZONA92009
Cactus ForestARIZONA72024
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA52018
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA52010
FlorenceARIZONA41976
Casa GrandeARIZONA42022
LenwoodCALIFORNIA41995
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA42013
Joshua Tree 2CALIFORNIA42016
Squaw PeakARIZONA31968
New RiverARIZONA32014
PisinimoARIZONA31993
Organ PipeARIZONA32021
Red Rock 2ARIZONA32016
Haiwee ResCALIFORNIA31999
OnyxCALIFORNIA32015
GoldstoneCALIFORNIA32009
PearblossomCALIFORNIA32024
QuartzsiteARIZONA22024
VicksburgARIZONA21987
DatelandARIZONA22016
AjoARIZONA21979
RivieraARIZONA22024
Cibola LakeARIZONA22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.