BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGeneralists

American Kestrel in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has edged up: up 11% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+11%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.1 (95% range 0.45–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.45–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.1 (95% range 0.45–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.441.7
20261.10.451.7
20271.10.451.7
20281.10.451.7
20291.10.451.7

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording American Kestrel in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NilandCALIFORNIA102024
HopeARIZONA92009
Cactus ForestARIZONA72024
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA52018
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA52010
FlorenceARIZONA41976
Casa GrandeARIZONA42022
LenwoodCALIFORNIA41995
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA42013
Joshua Tree 2CALIFORNIA42016
Squaw PeakARIZONA31968
New RiverARIZONA32014
PisinimoARIZONA31993
Organ PipeARIZONA32021
Red Rock 2ARIZONA32016
Haiwee ResCALIFORNIA31999
OnyxCALIFORNIA32015
GoldstoneCALIFORNIA32009
PearblossomCALIFORNIA32024
QuartzsiteARIZONA22024
VicksburgARIZONA21987
DatelandARIZONA22016
AjoARIZONA21979
RivieraARIZONA22024
Cibola LakeARIZONA22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.