BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGeneralists

American Kestrel in Coastal California has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-76%Since 1970
118Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

American Kestrel has collapsed in Coastal California: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Coastal California is projected to fall about 62% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.76 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-62%Change by 2029
0.76Projected 2029 index
0.00–2.695% range
±20.2%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.980.002.8
20260.930.002.8
20270.870.002.7
20280.820.002.7
20290.760.002.6

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording American Kestrel in Coastal California.
Tres Pinos 2CALIFORNIA262011
MorenoCALIFORNIA112024
RiovistaCALIFORNIA92024
HollisterCALIFORNIA62011
Yolla BollyCALIFORNIA62024
CoyoteCALIFORNIA62024
South LakeCALIFORNIA62006
Tracy 2CALIFORNIA62024
Tres PinosCALIFORNIA52003
ZamoraCALIFORNIA52024
TracyCALIFORNIA52009
Yokohl ValCALIFORNIA41997
Orange CoveCALIFORNIA42016
Lake BerryessaCALIFORNIA42024
Elsinore MtnCALIFORNIA42024
White RiverCALIFORNIA41992
LockwoodCALIFORNIA42024
LivermoreCALIFORNIA41991
AthloneCALIFORNIA42007
JofeganCALIFORNIA42022
CollegevilleCALIFORNIA32004
CaruthersCALIFORNIA31987
GravesboroCALIFORNIA31995
ParkfieldCALIFORNIA32024
SangerCALIFORNIA32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.