BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Kestrel In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontBirds of prey

American Kestrel in Piedmont has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-45%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Piedmont. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Piedmont is projected to fall about 83% by 2030 — from 0.17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-83%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Piedmont is projected to fall about 83% by 2030 — from 0.17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.060.000.32
20270.050.000.31
20280.050.000.30
20290.040.000.29
20300.030.000.28

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording American Kestrel in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Church RoadVIRGINIA41978
CollegevillePENNSYLVANIA32005
AkronPENNSYLVANIA31997
Taylorstown 2VIRGINIA32018
FairplayGEORGIA21991
SiloamGEORGIA21980
Holly SprsGEORGIA21980
EmmitsburgMARYLAND22025
CrotonNEW-JERSEY22001
Croton 2NEW-JERSEY22017
Salem XrdSOUTH-CAROLINA21998
CovesvilleVIRGINIA21981
ShipmanVIRGINIA21987
HallVIRGINIA21990
WylliesburgVIRGINIA21991
Carters Brdg 2VIRGINIA22025
MillervilleALABAMA11970
LincolntonGEORGIA11975
MaxeysGEORGIA12003
AthensGEORGIA12025
BaldwinGEORGIA11990
GrovetownGEORGIA11981
RutledgeGEORGIA11987
JulietteGEORGIA11988
WhitesburgGEORGIA12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.