BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

American Kestrel in Southeastern Coastal Plain has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-52%Since 1968
113Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

American Kestrel has fallen sharply in Southeastern Coastal Plain: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 65% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-65%Change by 2029
0.03Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.0995% range
±38.7%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.030.000.10
20260.030.000.10
20270.030.000.10
20280.030.000.09
20290.030.000.09

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording American Kestrel in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
MansfieldTENNESSEE42024
HumboldtTENNESSEE42024
SurryVIRGINIA41998
JamestownSOUTH-CAROLINA32009
MoscowTENNESSEE31997
BeatriceALABAMA22016
Dowling ParkFLORIDA22009
HildrethFLORIDA22009
BristolFLORIDA22009
Eglin A.F.B.FLORIDA22008
StocktonGEORGIA21982
NashvilleGEORGIA21978
DeepstepGEORGIA22005
LovelacevileKENTUCKY22022
Pearl RiverLOUISIANA21989
DibervilleMISSISSIPPI21987
New HollandSOUTH-CAROLINA21967
WhitevilleTENNESSEE22013
St FlorianALABAMA12019
HowardALABAMA11984
LibertyALABAMA11982
RiderwoodALABAMA12004
HarrellALABAMA12007
BillingsleyALABAMA11978
WallsboroALABAMA11975

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.