BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

American Kestrel in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 386% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+386%Since 1969
29Routes In Region
54Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

American Kestrel has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 386% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 0.48 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.18–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029
0.36Projected 2029 index
0.18–0.5595% range
±33.4%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.340.160.53
20260.350.160.53
20270.350.170.54
20280.360.170.54
20290.360.180.55

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording American Kestrel in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI72024
HarrisburgARKANSAS32004
DeventerMISSOURI32023
BlodgettMISSOURI32024
SaffellARKANSAS22014
GonzalesLOUISIANA21998
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA22001
DundeeMISSISSIPPI22022
KennettMISSOURI22024
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE22023
EudoraARKANSAS11970
HughesARKANSAS11975
West TylerARKANSAS11983
WhittonARKANSAS11986
MaynardARKANSAS12021
DellARKANSAS12017
EnglandARKANSAS12023
UlmARKANSAS11990
WilsonARKANSAS12024
BardwellKENTUCKY12001
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY12024
RoselandLOUISIANA11999
ShawLOUISIANA11996
BrousvilleLOUISIANA12024
FrogmoreLOUISIANA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.