BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

American Kestrel in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 386% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+386%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Kestrel has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 386% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Kestrel In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 0.48 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.18–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.18–0.5595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 0.48 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.18–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.340.160.53
20260.350.160.53
20270.350.170.54
20280.360.170.54
20290.360.180.55

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording American Kestrel in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI72024
HarrisburgARKANSAS32004
DeventerMISSOURI32023
BlodgettMISSOURI32024
SaffellARKANSAS22014
GonzalesLOUISIANA21998
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA22001
DundeeMISSISSIPPI22022
KennettMISSOURI22024
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE22023
EudoraARKANSAS11970
HughesARKANSAS11975
West TylerARKANSAS11983
WhittonARKANSAS11986
MaynardARKANSAS12021
DellARKANSAS12017
EnglandARKANSAS12023
UlmARKANSAS11990
WilsonARKANSAS12024
BardwellKENTUCKY12001
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY12024
RoselandLOUISIANA11999
ShawLOUISIANA11996
BrousvilleLOUISIANA12024
FrogmoreLOUISIANA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.