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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

American Kestrel in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-71%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Kestrel has fallen sharply in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Kestrel In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 61% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-61%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±88.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 61% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.17
20260.030.000.17
20270.030.000.16
20280.030.000.16
20290.020.000.16

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording American Kestrel in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GoodwillLOUISIANA62016
Old MiloARKANSAS41995
DerryLOUISIANA31974
HavanaARKANSAS22021
NatchezLOUISIANA22022
IndianolaOKLAHOMA22024
PocolaOKLAHOMA22016
New WaverlyTEXAS22016
Union HillTEXAS21998
RamseyARKANSAS11974
Locust BayouARKANSAS12016
StampsARKANSAS11999
HopeARKANSAS11991
CrowsARKANSAS11969
PoyenARKANSAS11978
HollywoodARKANSAS12007
BlakelyARKANSAS11971
StarkARKANSAS12023
Coal HillARKANSAS12022
MassardARKANSAS12015
StephensARKANSAS12013
De RidderLOUISIANA12015
FishvilleLOUISIANA11997
Fort PolkLOUISIANA11975
ChathamLOUISIANA11973

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.