BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

American Kestrel in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-71%Since 1969
50Routes In Region
50Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

American Kestrel has fallen sharply in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 61% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-61%Change by 2029
0.02Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.1695% range
±88.8%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.030.000.17
20260.030.000.17
20270.030.000.16
20280.030.000.16
20290.020.000.16

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording American Kestrel in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
GoodwillLOUISIANA62016
Old MiloARKANSAS41995
DerryLOUISIANA31974
HavanaARKANSAS22021
NatchezLOUISIANA22022
IndianolaOKLAHOMA22024
PocolaOKLAHOMA22016
New WaverlyTEXAS22016
Union HillTEXAS21998
RamseyARKANSAS11974
Locust BayouARKANSAS12016
StampsARKANSAS11999
HopeARKANSAS11991
CrowsARKANSAS11969
PoyenARKANSAS11978
HollywoodARKANSAS12007
BlakelyARKANSAS11971
StarkARKANSAS12023
Coal HillARKANSAS12022
MassardARKANSAS12015
StephensARKANSAS12013
De RidderLOUISIANA12015
FishvilleLOUISIANA11997
Fort PolkLOUISIANA11975
ChathamLOUISIANA11973

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.