BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Kestrel In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsBirds of prey

American Kestrel in Central Hardwoods has held roughly steady: up 6% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+6%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
143Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.0 (95% range 0.59–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.59–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.0 (95% range 0.59–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.611.5
20271.00.601.5
20281.00.601.5
20291.00.601.5
20301.00.591.5

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording American Kestrel in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MerrimacKENTUCKY82024
Wheeler DamALABAMA72025
EvansvilleINDIANA72022
GlenTENNESSEE72025
East UnionKENTUCKY62025
Indian SpgsINDIANA52025
LeveeKENTUCKY51982
EastviewKENTUCKY52025
ShelbyvilleKENTUCKY51978
GlencoeKENTUCKY52022
CascadeMISSOURI52025
CampbellsvilleTENNESSEE52019
BrazilINDIANA42025
AzaliaINDIANA42025
Clear SpringINDIANA42025
ScottsburgINDIANA42025
Cross PlainsINDIANA42024
Iron BridgeKENTUCKY41998
New PhilaINDIANA32025
GeorgiaINDIANA32025
KeysburgKENTUCKY32025
Cedar GroveKENTUCKY32024
MillionKENTUCKY31986
DemunbrunsKENTUCKY32021
GatewoodKENTUCKY32019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.