BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

American Kestrel in Central Hardwoods has held roughly steady: up 8% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+8%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
143Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.59–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.59–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.59–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.601.5
20261.00.601.5
20271.00.591.5
20281.00.591.5
20291.00.591.5

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording American Kestrel in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MorganfieldKENTUCKY222024
GlenTENNESSEE92024
MerrimacKENTUCKY82024
EvansvilleINDIANA72022
PeytonsvilleTENNESSEE72024
Kings MtnKENTUCKY62024
LeveeKENTUCKY51982
EastviewKENTUCKY52024
ShelbyvilleKENTUCKY51978
GlencoeKENTUCKY52022
CampbellsvilleTENNESSEE52019
CelestineINDIANA42024
NewberryINDIANA42024
Cross PlainsINDIANA42024
CantonKENTUCKY42024
KeysburgKENTUCKY42024
Iron BridgeKENTUCKY41998
PlumKENTUCKY42024
CentertonARKANSAS32022
BrownvilleILLINOIS32024
Indian SpgsINDIANA32024
GeorgiaINDIANA32024
Cedar GroveKENTUCKY32024
MillionKENTUCKY31986
DemunbrunsKENTUCKY32021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.