BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

American Kestrel in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has held roughly steady: up 4% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+4%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
270Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.65–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.65–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.65–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.621.8
20261.20.631.8
20271.20.641.8
20281.20.641.8
20291.20.651.8

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording American Kestrel in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KunkleOHIO92024
ChandlervillILLINOIS82024
MelroseILLINOIS81999
MadisonMISSOURI82024
SextonINDIANA72024
MonticelloILLINOIS62024
FloraILLINOIS62024
DarrtownOHIO62021
GalvestonINDIANA52024
BrookvilleINDIANA52024
Witts StationINDIANA52024
West LibertyIOWA52024
Rock Creek 2KANSAS52022
FrankfordMISSOURI52022
WilmingtonOHIO51995
GulfportILLINOIS42024
Deer CreekILLINOIS42023
ConcordILLINOIS42024
SenecaILLINOIS42024
Duncan MillsILLINOIS42024
Le RoyILLINOIS42023
AthensILLINOIS42023
W LafayetteINDIANA42024
SwayzeeINDIANA42023
Mt HamillIOWA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.