BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Kestrel In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieBirds of prey

American Kestrel in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has held roughly steady: up 8% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+8%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
272Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 10% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.66–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.66–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 10% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.66–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.631.8
20271.20.631.8
20281.20.641.8
20291.20.651.8
20301.20.661.8

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording American Kestrel in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MelroseILLINOIS81999
MadisonMISSOURI82024
SextonINDIANA72024
FloraILLINOIS62024
BrookvilleINDIANA62025
DarrtownOHIO62021
JamestownINDIANA52025
West LibertyIOWA52024
Rock Creek 2KANSAS52022
RensselaerMISSOURI52025
FrankfordMISSOURI52022
CameronMISSOURI52025
KunkleOHIO52025
WilmingtonOHIO51995
Marion 2OHIO52025
HolcombILLINOIS42025
ChandlervillILLINOIS42025
Deer CreekILLINOIS42023
JamestownILLINOIS42025
CaledoniaILLINOIS42025
SenecaILLINOIS42024
Le RoyILLINOIS42023
Allerton ParkILLINOIS42025
AthensILLINOIS42023
W LafayetteINDIANA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.