BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Oaks and Prairies has declined: down 27% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-27%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.000.18
20260.060.000.18
20270.060.000.17
20280.060.000.17
20290.060.000.17

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording American Kestrel in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DallasTEXAS32023
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA21968
BeggsOKLAHOMA22023
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA22022
HeyburnOKLAHOMA22019
DuncanOKLAHOMA22006
LockhartTEXAS21982
DikeTEXAS22014
HenriettaTEXAS22005
BrucevilleTEXAS22024
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA11975
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA11994
ChoctawOKLAHOMA12005
NobleOKLAHOMA12012
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA11972
TatumsOKLAHOMA12022
SkiatookOKLAHOMA12005
Lone OakTEXAS12000
WeatherfordTEXAS12022
GrafordTEXAS12017
CottonwoodTEXAS11984
AlbanyTEXAS11999
Miller GroveTEXAS12016
Wolfe CityTEXAS11973
RhomeTEXAS12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.