BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Kestrel In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesBirds of prey

American Kestrel in Oaks and Prairies has declined: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-25%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 55% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-55%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 55% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.070.000.18
20270.070.000.18
20280.070.000.18
20290.070.000.18
20300.060.000.18

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording American Kestrel in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA22025
BeggsOKLAHOMA22023
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA22022
HeyburnOKLAHOMA22019
DuncanOKLAHOMA22006
LockhartTEXAS21982
DikeTEXAS22014
HenriettaTEXAS22005
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA11994
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA12025
ChoctawOKLAHOMA12005
NobleOKLAHOMA12012
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA11972
TatumsOKLAHOMA12022
SkiatookOKLAHOMA12005
Lone OakTEXAS12000
DallasTEXAS12025
WeatherfordTEXAS12025
GrafordTEXAS12017
CottonwoodTEXAS11984
AlbanyTEXAS11999
Miller GroveTEXAS12016
Wolfe CityTEXAS11973
RhomeTEXAS12022
GainesvilleTEXAS11968

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.