BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

American Kestrel in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-64%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
111Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Kestrel has fallen sharply in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.14–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–0.9895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.14–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.590.171.0
20260.580.161.00
20270.570.150.99
20280.560.150.98
20290.560.140.98

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording American Kestrel in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BartlettNEBRASKA81976
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA82022
ArthurNEBRASKA62024
BartleyNEBRASKA42018
HackberryTEXAS42024
St JohnKANSAS32013
HaysKANSAS32008
HollenbergKANSAS32023
LoganKANSAS32019
MisslerKANSAS32008
Beloit 2KANSAS32018
SurpriseNEBRASKA32016
BradyNEBRASKA32024
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA32024
BerwynNEBRASKA32010
RosstonOKLAHOMA32017
WeinertTEXAS31994
Beaver CreekTEXAS32022
DaltonKANSAS22023
ChapmanKANSAS21980
GoveKANSAS22015
SolomonKANSAS22019
BeloitKANSAS22003
StrattonNEBRASKA22024
TableNEBRASKA22015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.