BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Kestrel In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieBirds of prey

American Kestrel in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 119% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+119%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
128Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Kestrel has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 119% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Kestrel In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 0.97 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.52–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±124.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.52–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±124.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 0.97 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.52–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±124.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.492.2
20271.30.502.2
20281.40.512.2
20291.40.512.2
20301.40.522.2

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording American Kestrel in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO171997
LingleWYOMING112024
KiowaCOLORADO52017
GilpinCOLORADO52025
EdlerCOLORADO52025
TwichellTEXAS52025
RushCOLORADO42019
WaverlyCOLORADO42014
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA42025
HardestyOKLAHOMA42024
RankinTEXAS41975
DoughertyTEXAS42025
YoderWYOMING42025
LamarCOLORADO32006
Adams Co.COLORADO32022
TrincheraCOLORADO32022
HaswellCOLORADO32024
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO32023
RuletonKANSAS32011
PaxtonNEBRASKA32016
DaltonNEBRASKA32025
FarleyNEW-MEXICO32025
FloydNEW-MEXICO32025
FeltOKLAHOMA32024
PlainsTEXAS32023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.