BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

American Kestrel in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 97% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+97%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
127Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Kestrel has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 97% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Kestrel In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.54–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±135.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.54–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±135.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.54–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±135.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.512.2
20261.40.522.2
20271.40.522.2
20281.40.532.2
20291.40.542.2

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording American Kestrel in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO171997
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA152024
LingleWYOMING112024
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO72024
KiowaCOLORADO52017
CrawfordNEBRASKA52024
SkellytownTEXAS52022
RushCOLORADO42019
WaverlyCOLORADO42014
HardestyOKLAHOMA42024
RankinTEXAS41975
YoderWYOMING42024
LamarCOLORADO32006
GilpinCOLORADO32024
Adams Co.COLORADO32022
TrincheraCOLORADO32022
Kiowa 2COLORADO32024
HaswellCOLORADO32024
Fort MorganCOLORADO32019
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO32023
RuletonKANSAS32011
PaxtonNEBRASKA32016
DaltonNEBRASKA32024
FeltOKLAHOMA32024
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.