BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

American Kestrel in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 97% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+97%Since 1969
127Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

American Kestrel has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 97% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.54–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±135.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029
1.4Projected 2029 index
0.54–2.295% range
±135.7%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.40.512.2
20261.40.522.2
20271.40.522.2
20281.40.532.2
20291.40.542.2

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording American Kestrel in Shortgrass Prairie.
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO171997
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA152024
LingleWYOMING112024
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO72024
KiowaCOLORADO52017
CrawfordNEBRASKA52024
SkellytownTEXAS52022
RushCOLORADO42019
WaverlyCOLORADO42014
HardestyOKLAHOMA42024
RankinTEXAS41975
YoderWYOMING42024
LamarCOLORADO32006
GilpinCOLORADO32024
Adams Co.COLORADO32022
TrincheraCOLORADO32022
Kiowa 2COLORADO32024
HaswellCOLORADO32024
Fort MorganCOLORADO32019
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO32023
RuletonKANSAS32011
PaxtonNEBRASKA32016
DaltonNEBRASKA32024
FeltOKLAHOMA32024
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.