BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 120% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+120%Since 1969
129Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

American Kestrel has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 120% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.44–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2029
1.5Projected 2029 index
0.44–2.595% range
±52%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.50.432.5
20261.50.432.5
20271.50.442.5
20281.50.442.5
20291.50.442.5

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording American Kestrel in Badlands and Prairies.
ArvadaWYOMING202024
Chuffey SpringMONTANA92024
SchoonoverWYOMING82024
Two DotMONTANA72024
NewcastleWYOMING72024
PowdervilleMONTANA62024
ClarkelenWYOMING61977
RecluseWYOMING62024
BrusettMONTANA52024
Flatwillow 2MONTANA52023
Miles CityMONTANA52024
RozetWYOMING52023
LeroyMONTANA42024
ShawmutMONTANA42024
MarcusSOUTH-DAKOTA42003
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA42022
SussexWYOMING42024
BucknumWYOMING42024
CircleMONTANA32022
ForsythMONTANA32023
Reed PointMONTANA32024
BrandenbergMONTANA32019
Maynard CouleeMONTANA32023
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA32023
Roosevelt PkNORTH-DAKOTA32017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.