BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Kestrel In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesBirds of prey

American Kestrel in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 135% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+135%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
131Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Kestrel has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 135% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Kestrel In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.5 (95% range 0.46–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.46–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.5 (95% range 0.46–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.452.5
20271.50.452.5
20281.50.452.5
20291.50.462.5
20301.50.462.5

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording American Kestrel in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chuffey SpringMONTANA92024
Cabin CreekMONTANA82025
LuskWYOMING82025
BrandenbergMONTANA72025
ShawmutMONTANA62025
ClarkelenWYOMING61977
SussexWYOMING62025
RozetWYOMING62025
BrusettMONTANA52024
Flatwillow 2MONTANA52023
HardingSOUTH-DAKOTA52025
Miles CityMONTANA42025
MarcusSOUTH-DAKOTA42003
UptonWYOMING42025
Thunder BasinWYOMING42025
BucknumWYOMING42024
CircleMONTANA32022
ForsythMONTANA32023
Reed PointMONTANA32025
Wheat BasinMONTANA32025
Custer 2MONTANA32025
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA32023
Roosevelt PkNORTH-DAKOTA32017
WinnerSOUTH-DAKOTA32025
MaurineSOUTH-DAKOTA32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.