BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 120% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+120%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Kestrel has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 120% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Kestrel In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.44–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.44–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.44–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.432.5
20261.50.432.5
20271.50.442.5
20281.50.442.5
20291.50.442.5

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording American Kestrel in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ArvadaWYOMING202024
Chuffey SpringMONTANA92024
SchoonoverWYOMING82024
Two DotMONTANA72024
NewcastleWYOMING72024
PowdervilleMONTANA62024
ClarkelenWYOMING61977
RecluseWYOMING62024
BrusettMONTANA52024
Flatwillow 2MONTANA52023
Miles CityMONTANA52024
RozetWYOMING52023
LeroyMONTANA42024
ShawmutMONTANA42024
MarcusSOUTH-DAKOTA42003
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA42022
SussexWYOMING42024
BucknumWYOMING42024
CircleMONTANA32022
ForsythMONTANA32023
Reed PointMONTANA32024
BrandenbergMONTANA32019
Maynard CouleeMONTANA32023
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA32023
Roosevelt PkNORTH-DAKOTA32017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.