BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

American Kestrel in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-51%Since 1970
223Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

American Kestrel has fallen sharply in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 0.88 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.01–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2029
0.54Projected 2029 index
0.01–1.195% range
±23.2%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.620.101.1
20260.600.081.1
20270.580.051.1
20280.560.031.1
20290.540.011.1

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording American Kestrel in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
CortezCOLORADO92008
Ryan ParkWYOMING91993
GreasewoodARIZONA72003
Steamboat L.COLORADO72024
Castle ButteARIZONA61994
YampaCOLORADO62023
AltonahUTAH62015
BufordWYOMING62024
PaoniaCOLORADO52024
Cortez 2COLORADO52017
Horse MtnNEW-MEXICO52023
AnethUTAH52024
Lake PowellUTAH52000
FalfaCOLORADO42024
Colona 2COLORADO42021
FarmingtonNEW-MEXICO41987
Fence LakeNEW-MEXICO42024
ValenciaNEW-MEXICO41997
Horse SpgsNEW-MEXICO42024
QuemadoNEW-MEXICO41997
AztecNEW-MEXICO41989
La Plata 2NEW-MEXICO42016
BonanzaUTAH42015
HannaUTAH42024
Round RockARIZONA31976

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.