BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

American Kestrel in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-51%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
223Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Kestrel has fallen sharply in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

American Kestrel In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 0.88 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.01–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.54Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 0.88 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.01–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.620.101.1
20260.600.081.1
20270.580.051.1
20280.560.031.1
20290.540.011.1

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording American Kestrel in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CortezCOLORADO92008
Ryan ParkWYOMING91993
GreasewoodARIZONA72003
Steamboat L.COLORADO72024
Castle ButteARIZONA61994
YampaCOLORADO62023
AltonahUTAH62015
BufordWYOMING62024
PaoniaCOLORADO52024
Cortez 2COLORADO52017
Horse MtnNEW-MEXICO52023
AnethUTAH52024
Lake PowellUTAH52000
FalfaCOLORADO42024
Colona 2COLORADO42021
FarmingtonNEW-MEXICO41987
Fence LakeNEW-MEXICO42024
ValenciaNEW-MEXICO41997
Horse SpgsNEW-MEXICO42024
QuemadoNEW-MEXICO41997
AztecNEW-MEXICO41989
La Plata 2NEW-MEXICO42016
BonanzaUTAH42015
HannaUTAH42024
Round RockARIZONA31976

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.