BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaGeneralists

American Kestrel in Sierra Nevada has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-58%Since 1971
32Routes In Region
54Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

American Kestrel has fallen sharply in Sierra Nevada: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 79% by 2029 — from 0.68 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-79%Change by 2029
0.15Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.5395% range
±62.2%Backtest error
19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.170.000.56
20260.170.000.55
20270.160.000.54
20280.150.000.54
20290.150.000.53

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording American Kestrel in Sierra Nevada.
ChilcootCALIFORNIA42024
SattleyCALIFORNIA32024
Butte MeadowCALIFORNIA31990
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA32019
Lassen ParkCALIFORNIA21976
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA22019
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA22024
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA21997
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA22018
GoumazCALIFORNIA22007
PaxtonCALIFORNIA22017
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA12024
WestvilleCALIFORNIA12024
DardanelleCALIFORNIA11997
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA12015
LumberyardCALIFORNIA11981
Silver CityCALIFORNIA12013
Kings CanyonCALIFORNIA12009
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA12024
GeneseeCALIFORNIA12024
Higgins CornCALIFORNIA11982
DownievilleCALIFORNIA11984
RivertonCALIFORNIA12008
LakeshoreCALIFORNIA11980
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA12009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.