BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Kestrel In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainBirds of prey

American Kestrel in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-2%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 0.60 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.43Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 0.60 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.490.001.2
20270.470.001.1
20280.460.001.1
20290.440.001.1
20300.430.001.1

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording American Kestrel in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MaysvilleOHIO62005
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA52024
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK32024
E YoungstownNEW-YORK32025
ClintonNEW-YORK32013
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK32024
LattasburgOHIO32022
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA32017
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA32025
AusterlitzNEW-YORK22025
CatskillsNEW-YORK21971
DuanesburgNEW-YORK22025
SheridanNEW-YORK22025
NashvilleNEW-YORK22018
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK22024
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK22025
WaddingtonNEW-YORK21996
WillsboroNEW-YORK22024
LucerneOHIO22025
New SomersetOHIO21993
Valley CityOHIO22007
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA22023
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA22025
BristolVERMONT22025
RhinebeckNEW-YORK12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.