BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

American Kestrel in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-4%Since 1968
85Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 0.83 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2029
0.43Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.195% range
±34%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.500.001.2
20260.480.001.2
20270.460.001.1
20280.450.001.1
20290.430.001.1

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording American Kestrel in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
MaysvilleOHIO62005
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA52024
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA42023
AusterlitzNEW-YORK32024
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK32024
ClintonNEW-YORK32013
SalemNEW-YORK32023
ParishvilleNEW-YORK32024
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK32024
LattasburgOHIO32022
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA32017
CatskillsNEW-YORK21971
OrleansNEW-YORK22024
NashvilleNEW-YORK22018
E YoungstownNEW-YORK22019
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK22024
WaddingtonNEW-YORK21996
WillsboroNEW-YORK22024
New SomersetOHIO21993
Valley CityOHIO22007
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA22023
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA22023
RhinebeckNEW-YORK12024
HighlandNEW-YORK11985
W ShokanNEW-YORK11972

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.