BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Kestrel In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionBirds of prey

American Kestrel in Boreal Hardwood Transition has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-40%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
113Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 0.36 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 0.36 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.270.000.54
20270.260.000.54
20280.250.000.53
20290.240.000.52
20300.230.000.51

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording American Kestrel in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Iron RiverWISCONSIN42025
GilchristMICHIGAN32021
CathroMICHIGAN32016
HerronMICHIGAN32016
Little ForkMINNESOTA32024
BagleyMINNESOTA32006
BayfieldWISCONSIN32025
ExelandWISCONSIN32024
OntonagonMICHIGAN22017
Ned LakeMICHIGAN22019
HermanMICHIGAN21991
Brocky LakeMICHIGAN22025
ShingletonMICHIGAN22024
Bear LakeMICHIGAN22023
PickfordMICHIGAN22025
Walloon LakeMICHIGAN22004
SkeelsMICHIGAN22011
Hubbard LakeMICHIGAN21993
FloodwoodMINNESOTA22025
Island LakeMINNESOTA21988
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA22021
BemidjiMINNESOTA21980
NebishMINNESOTA22023
MinongWISCONSIN22007
GilmanWISCONSIN22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.