BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

American Kestrel in Boreal Hardwood Transition has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-45%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
113Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

American Kestrel In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 46% by 2029 — from 0.44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 46% by 2029 — from 0.44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.280.000.55
20260.270.000.54
20270.260.000.53
20280.250.000.52
20290.240.000.51

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording American Kestrel in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Iron RiverWISCONSIN52024
GilchristMICHIGAN32021
CathroMICHIGAN32016
HerronMICHIGAN32016
Little ForkMINNESOTA32024
BagleyMINNESOTA32006
BayfieldWISCONSIN32024
ExelandWISCONSIN32024
OntonagonMICHIGAN22017
Ned LakeMICHIGAN22019
HermanMICHIGAN21991
ShingletonMICHIGAN22024
Bear LakeMICHIGAN22023
Walloon LakeMICHIGAN22004
SkeelsMICHIGAN22011
Sand LakeMICHIGAN22021
Hubbard LakeMICHIGAN21993
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN22024
Island LakeMINNESOTA21988
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA22021
BemidjiMINNESOTA21980
NebishMINNESOTA22023
MinongWISCONSIN22007
GilmanWISCONSIN22019
HollisterWISCONSIN22017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.