BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

American Kestrel in Boreal Hardwood Transition has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-45%Since 1968
113Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 46% by 2029 — from 0.44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2029
0.24Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.5195% range
±24.7%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.280.000.55
20260.270.000.54
20270.260.000.53
20280.250.000.52
20290.240.000.51

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording American Kestrel in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Iron RiverWISCONSIN52024
GilchristMICHIGAN32021
CathroMICHIGAN32016
HerronMICHIGAN32016
Little ForkMINNESOTA32024
BagleyMINNESOTA32006
BayfieldWISCONSIN32024
ExelandWISCONSIN32024
OntonagonMICHIGAN22017
Ned LakeMICHIGAN22019
HermanMICHIGAN21991
ShingletonMICHIGAN22024
Bear LakeMICHIGAN22023
Walloon LakeMICHIGAN22004
SkeelsMICHIGAN22011
Sand LakeMICHIGAN22021
Hubbard LakeMICHIGAN21993
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN22024
Island LakeMINNESOTA21988
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA22021
BemidjiMINNESOTA21980
NebishMINNESOTA22023
MinongWISCONSIN22007
GilmanWISCONSIN22019
HollisterWISCONSIN22017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.