BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Kestrel In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

American Kestrel in Northern Rockies has edged down: down 22% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-22%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
195Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Kestrel in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.11–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.71Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.11–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Kestrel in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.11–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.770.181.4
20260.760.161.4
20270.740.141.3
20280.720.131.3
20290.710.111.3

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording American Kestrel in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clyde ParkMONTANA132024
LysiteWYOMING112024
Big SandyWYOMING112022
BridgeportOREGON102018
PolsonMONTANA82024
Mtn ViewWYOMING72024
LaurelMONTANA62022
DonnybrookOREGON51997
Saleratus CrUTAH52016
CodyWYOMING52024
LeoWYOMING52016
LayCOLORADO42024
CoolinIDAHO42024
Red RockMONTANA42024
PhilipsburgMONTANA42024
GreenoughMONTANA42003
MadrasOREGON42024
CurlewWASHINGTON42017
LovellWYOMING42019
MeeteetseWYOMING42024
Carter 2WYOMING42024
Lolo PassIDAHO32000
CascadeIDAHO31984
CabartonIDAHO32013
Crane CreekIDAHO32019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.