BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goshawk In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Generalists

American Goshawk in BCR 4 has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

-65%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Goshawk has fallen sharply in BCR 4: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

American Goshawk In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Goshawk in BCR 4 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±117.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±117.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goshawk in BCR 4 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±117.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19852029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.11
20260.030.000.11
20270.030.000.11
20280.030.000.11
20290.030.000.11

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording American Goshawk in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ColdfootALASKA32012
Donelly DomeALASKA22000
CircleALASKA11998
Chatanika RALASKA12012
Skilak LakeALASKA11985
KalifonskyALASKA12013
Kenny LakeALASKA12015
ChickenALASKA11993
Hatcher PassALASKA12007
Anchor RiverALASKA12012
Chena Hot Spring 2ALASKA12008
CohoeALASKA12022
Seven LakesALASKA12012
Burma RoadALASKA12011
Hather CreekALASKA12007
Mud RiverALASKA12008
RubyALASKA12017
Porcupine R.ALASKA11995
Ft. RichrdsnALASKA12009
TatalinaALASKA12012
Kanuti LakeALASKA12007
Nabesna RoadALASKA12011
KuskulanaALASKA12022
Mccarthy Rd2ALASKA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.