BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goshawk In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

American Goshawk in Northern Rockies has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-69%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Goshawk has fallen sharply in Northern Rockies: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

American Goshawk In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Goshawk in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±85%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goshawk in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.010.000.06
20250.010.000.06
20260.010.000.06
20270.010.000.06
20280.010.000.06

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording American Goshawk in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GreenoughMONTANA32000
Libby DamMONTANA21990
St MaryMONTANA21971
PolsonMONTANA21991
Pagil GulchMONTANA22022
UnityOREGON21999
Eagle CreekOREGON22022
AlpineWYOMING22012
WilsonWYOMING21985
Green RiverWYOMING21981
MivodenIDAHO11984
Cape HornIDAHO12012
CentervilleIDAHO12019
CoolinIDAHO12007
CabartonIDAHO11993
Sawtooth CtyIDAHO11997
Marble CreekIDAHO11990
Salmon RiverIDAHO11996
CobaltIDAHO11989
Yellow PineIDAHO12004
SunbeamIDAHO12019
Sawtooth City 2IDAHO12018
St RegisMONTANA12001
ArleeMONTANA12011
WoodmanMONTANA12005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.