BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Dipper Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

American Dipper in New Mexico has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

-63%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Dipper Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Dipper has fallen sharply in New Mexico: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

American Dipper Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, American Dipper in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Dipper in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.05
20260.020.000.05
20270.020.000.05
20280.010.000.05
20290.010.000.05

American Dipper Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording American Dipper in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Angel Fire220011992
Ojo Sarco120241972
Gallinas119941994
Angel Fire 2120062006
Vallecitos120002000
Cloudcroft119751975

American Dipper Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.