BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Dipper In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

American Dipper in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-79%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Dipper has collapsed in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

American Dipper In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Dipper in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 56% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-56%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Dipper in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 56% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.19
20260.030.000.19
20270.030.000.19
20280.030.000.18
20290.020.000.18

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording American Dipper in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Guanella PasCOLORADO42024
TincupCOLORADO42018
BufordCOLORADO22017
AspenCOLORADO22013
Lost LakeCOLORADO22012
TarryallCOLORADO22009
Dolores RivCOLORADO22005
Lake CityCOLORADO21997
Fox CreekCOLORADO22024
PowderhornCOLORADO22023
Angel FireNEW-MEXICO22001
Ant Flat-Ogden CanUTAH22018
KamasUTAH21999
HarmonyCOLORADO12017
Cheesman LkCOLORADO12022
DeltaCOLORADO11998
ColonaCOLORADO11988
ParlinCOLORADO12022
Pagosa SpgsCOLORADO11972
Red CliffCOLORADO12017
CastletonCOLORADO12017
Blackhead PkCOLORADO11991
Rio Grnds RsCOLORADO12009
ThomasvilleCOLORADO12003
Groundhog RsCOLORADO11994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.