BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Dipper In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesWetland birds

American Dipper in Northern Rockies has surged: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+83%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Dipper has surged in Northern Rockies: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

American Dipper In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Dipper in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±160.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±160.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Dipper in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±160.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.110.000.26
20270.110.000.26
20280.110.000.26
20290.110.000.26
20300.100.000.26

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording American Dipper in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CentervilleIDAHO52025
N Fork Cda RIDAHO52019
Buckskin MtnWYOMING42025
SulaMONTANA31977
AveryIDAHO22025
Marble CreekIDAHO22023
CobaltIDAHO22013
Rochat DivdeIDAHO22009
St RegisMONTANA22024
MammothWYOMING22023
WilsonWYOMING22025
YellowstoneWYOMING22012
NaplesIDAHO12002
NezperceIDAHO11997
Lolo PassIDAHO12001
GoldenIDAHO12015
CascadeIDAHO11975
Cape HornIDAHO11994
ChallisIDAHO12012
AlturasIDAHO11968
Nezperce NfIDAHO11999
PierceIDAHO12007
BurgdorfIDAHO12016
Yellow PineIDAHO12015
SunbeamIDAHO12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.