BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Crow In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGeneralists

American Crow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 391% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+391%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Crow has surged in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 391% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

American Crow In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Crow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 95% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±470.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-95%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±470.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Crow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 95% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±470.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.001.1
20260.090.001.1
20270.080.001.1
20280.080.001.1
20290.080.001.1

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording American Crow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lucerne ValCALIFORNIA492024
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA151976
Valley WellsCALIFORNIA22008
Anza BorregoCALIFORNIA22019
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA21978
Lone PineCALIFORNIA22009
LagunaARIZONA11977
OnyxCALIFORNIA11976
LenwoodCALIFORNIA11992
PearblossomCALIFORNIA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.