BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Crow In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

American Crow in Shortgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-84%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Crow has collapsed in Shortgrass Prairie: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Crow In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Crow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 0.71 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.48Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±93%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Crow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 0.71 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.630.002.2
20260.600.002.2
20270.560.002.1
20280.520.002.1
20290.480.002.1

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording American Crow in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HookerOKLAHOMA352017
Gordon CreekCOLORADO272018
WakaTEXAS262018
KermitTEXAS241999
CampoCOLORADO202018
FlemingCOLORADO151999
CrawfordNEBRASKA142024
HudsonCOLORADO102003
ElbertCOLORADO102024
EdlerCOLORADO82011
Wildhorse LCOLORADO72012
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA62024
Wagon MoundNEW-MEXICO61973
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA52024
BrownsonNEBRASKA52021
FloydNEW-MEXICO52024
HardestyOKLAHOMA52002
TexlineTEXAS52007
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO41995
BennettCOLORADO42005
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA42024
Frankel CityTEXAS41994
KiowaCOLORADO32018
AmherstCOLORADO32022
UlyssesKANSAS32003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.