BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Crow In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

American Crow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has edged up: up 23% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+23%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Crow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

American Crow In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Crow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 49 (95% range 33–64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
33–6495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Crow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 49 (95% range 33–64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025483263
2026483264
2027483364
2028483364
2029493364

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording American Crow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CastileNEW-YORK702024
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA682024
LucerneOHIO612024
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA602024
GarrettsvileOHIO591991
CatskillsNEW-YORK552015
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK542024
NashvilleNEW-YORK542018
OrleansNEW-YORK532024
Canadice LNEW-YORK522024
West BangorNEW-YORK511999
NaplesNEW-YORK492024
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA492024
Ballston LkNEW-YORK471995
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK472024
MendonNEW-YORK462024
WatertownNEW-YORK462012
ClintonNEW-YORK452013
N VictoryNEW-YORK451972
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA452024
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA452023
BranchportNEW-YORK442024
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK432024
AkeleyPENNSYLVANIA431979
CayugaNEW-YORK422024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.