BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Coot In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestWetland birds

American Coot in Northern Pacific Rainforest has collapsed: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-75%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Coot has collapsed in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

American Coot In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Coot in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2023, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±258%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2023TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2023 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±258%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Coot in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2023, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±258%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702023
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20190.060.000.20
20200.050.000.20
20210.050.000.20
20220.050.000.20
20230.050.000.19

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording American Coot in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warm BeachWASHINGTON71993
LaytonvilleCALIFORNIA41990
ElktonOREGON31976
Mendota 2WASHINGTON31993
MccloudCALIFORNIA21996
AlderpointCALIFORNIA22009
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA22018
YrekaCALIFORNIA22017
GlasgowOREGON22008
SalemOREGON22010
CarnationWASHINGTON21996
Mendota 3WASHINGTON22006
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA11978
NavarroCALIFORNIA11996
Days CreekOREGON11992
AdairOREGON12016
ClearwaterOREGON12004
Elk LakeOREGON12003
Emigrant LkOREGON11997
ProspectOREGON12007
ScappooseOREGON12000
Port AngelesWASHINGTON12010
CougarWASHINGTON11971
CamasWASHINGTON11993
South ElmaWASHINGTON11984

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.