BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Coot In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieWetland birds

American Coot in Gulf Coastal Prairie has collapsed: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-87%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Coot has collapsed in Gulf Coastal Prairie: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

American Coot In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Coot in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 404% by 2028 — from 0.91 in 2023 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2021.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+404%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.6Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2021.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Coot in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 404% by 2028 — from 0.91 in 2023 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2021.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20244.40.0015
20254.40.0015
20264.50.0015
20274.60.0016
20284.60.0016

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording American Coot in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA1341971
Loyola BeachTEXAS202008
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS202023
Bayside 3TEXAS152018
BaysideTEXAS121996
IndianolaTEXAS92012
WinnieTEXAS71996
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA62011
Moon Lake 2TEXAS42021
Padre Island PaisTEXAS42015
DanburyTEXAS32019
KatyTEXAS32013
Moon LakeTEXAS32011
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS32022
CreoleLOUISIANA21977
MauriceLOUISIANA22001
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA22010
WoodlawnLOUISIANA22017
Lag AtascosaTEXAS22016
PetronilaTEXAS21970
Hinkles FerTEXAS22013
Bayside 2TEXAS22000
HackberryLOUISIANA11973
KaplanLOUISIANA12013
RichardLOUISIANA12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.