BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Coot In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertWetland birds

American Coot in Chihuahuan Desert has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

-83%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Coot has collapsed in Chihuahuan Desert: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

American Coot In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Coot in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 109% by 2023 — from 0.09 in 2018 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±836.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+109%Change by 2023TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2023 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±836.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Coot in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 109% by 2023 — from 0.09 in 2018 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±836.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742023
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20190.220.001.0
20200.210.001.0
20210.210.001.0
20220.200.001.0
20230.190.001.0

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording American Coot in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS32018
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO21975
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO22017
Red RockNEW-MEXICO21995
Casa PiedraTEXAS22006
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO11993
MesillaNEW-MEXICO11999
PresidioTEXAS12010
CanutilloTEXAS11998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.