BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Coot In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieWetland birds

American Coot in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has collapsed: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-90%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Coot has collapsed in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Coot In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Coot in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±187.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±187.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Coot in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±187.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.160.001.1
20260.150.001.1
20270.140.001.1
20280.120.001.1
20290.110.001.0

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording American Coot in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrownleeNEBRASKA212021
HamptonNEBRASKA182019
AlbertKANSAS102019
Swan LakeNEBRASKA102019
GordonNEBRASKA62019
Crescent LkNEBRASKA52017
MisslerKANSAS32009
ArthurNEBRASKA32024
BuckeyeKANSAS21989
SewardNEBRASKA21973
BradyNEBRASKA22015
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA22024
BassettNEBRASKA22022
Eagle CityOKLAHOMA22003
Wichita Mts WestOKLAHOMA22006
HaskellTEXAS22019
CoatsKANSAS11980
LoganKANSAS11996
RexfordKANSAS12023
BelvidereNEBRASKA11975
KenesawNEBRASKA12016
JohnstownNEBRASKA11985
Piester LakeNEBRASKA12024
KennedyNEBRASKA12021
TableNEBRASKA12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.