BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Coot In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesWetland birds

American Coot in Badlands and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-65%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Coot has fallen sharply in Badlands and Prairies: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Coot In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Coot in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 0.87 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±122.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±122.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Coot in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 0.87 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±122.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.610.002.1
20260.600.002.1
20270.580.002.1
20280.570.002.1
20290.560.002.1

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording American Coot in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
S. PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA252024
Wheat BasinMONTANA232019
White RiverSOUTH-DAKOTA211998
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA192015
BadlandsSOUTH-DAKOTA141997
ShawmutMONTANA132024
NatronaWYOMING131992
DwyerWYOMING131992
French CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA122001
Caballa CrkWYOMING101997
Two DotMONTANA62024
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA62019
ArdmoreSOUTH-DAKOTA62019
GlenrockWYOMING61968
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA51990
WelchWYOMING51996
BrusettMONTANA42024
FlatwillowMONTANA41991
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA42016
VolunteerSOUTH-DAKOTA32019
OttumwaSOUTH-DAKOTA32019
DaytonWYOMING32008
Seely 2WYOMING32024
SavageMONTANA22021
ForsythMONTANA22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.