BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Bittern In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieWetland birds

American Bittern in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 529% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+529%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Bittern in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

American Bittern In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Bittern in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 91% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.01–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+91%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Bittern in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 91% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.01–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.200.000.41
20270.200.000.41
20280.210.000.41
20290.210.010.41
20300.210.010.41

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording American Bittern in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BassettNEBRASKA62024
AlbertKANSAS42019
DouglasOKLAHOMA41987
GrayKANSAS31994
KennedyNEBRASKA32024
Crescent LkNEBRASKA32025
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA22025
CoatsKANSAS11979
BuckeyeKANSAS11974
KearneyNEBRASKA11974
SurpriseNEBRASKA11972
Swan LakeNEBRASKA12025
Piester LakeNEBRASKA12025
BrownleeNEBRASKA12025
MullenNEBRASKA12017
NenzelNEBRASKA12022
JetOKLAHOMA12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.