BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Bittern In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesWetland birds

American Bittern in Badlands and Prairies has risen sharply: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+66%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Bittern has risen sharply in Badlands and Prairies: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

American Bittern In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Bittern in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Bittern in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.100.000.23
20260.100.000.23
20270.100.000.23
20280.100.000.23
20290.100.000.23

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording American Bittern in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA92023
HayesSOUTH-DAKOTA72019
WebsterMONTANA32023
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA32023
OttumwaSOUTH-DAKOTA32015
LarkNORTH-DAKOTA21982
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA22007
S. PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA22024
RoyMONTANA12019
BrusettMONTANA11982
IngomarMONTANA11980
St XavierMONTANA11996
PowdervilleMONTANA11974
AlbionMONTANA12008
Flatwillow 2MONTANA12018
WinnettMONTANA12023
LindsayMONTANA12018
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA11999
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA12013
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA12023
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA12007
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA12015
GolvaNORTH-DAKOTA12003
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA11988
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.