BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Bittern In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestWetland birds

American Bittern in Atlantic Northern Forest has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-36%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Bittern in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

American Bittern In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Bittern in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.06–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Bittern in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.06–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.240.070.41
20260.240.070.41
20270.240.060.41
20280.240.060.41
20290.230.060.41

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording American Bittern in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WashburnMAINE52005
St DavidMAINE42005
Northfield 2MAINE41992
NorthfieldMAINE31980
HudsonMAINE32009
Pillsbury PdMAINE31968
Dixvil NotchNEW-HAMPSHIRE32017
W RutlandVERMONT32024
NewcastleMAINE22007
HartfordMAINE22012
ManchesterMAINE21982
FreedomMAINE22022
HarmonyMAINE22022
EastbrookMAINE21985
AuroraMAINE22018
Moose RiverMAINE21989
Forest StaMAINE22000
BoundaryMAINE22011
JeffersonMAINE21996
TopsfieldMAINE21992
Lake MoxieMAINE22009
FranconiaNEW-HAMPSHIRE22003
Dixville Notch 2NEW-HAMPSHIRE22024
KasoagNEW-YORK21993
HighmarketNEW-YORK22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.