BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Bittern In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainWetland birds

American Bittern in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has edged up: up 10% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+10%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Bittern in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

American Bittern In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Bittern in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Bittern in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.000.27
20260.130.000.27
20270.130.000.28
20280.130.000.28
20290.130.000.28

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording American Bittern in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WaddingtonNEW-YORK61998
EllenburgNEW-YORK32006
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK21976
WatertownNEW-YORK22010
ArgyleNEW-YORK22009
OgdensburgNEW-YORK22024
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK22024
LenoxOHIO21972
Slippery RkPENNSYLVANIA21990
W ShokanNEW-YORK11972
AusterlitzNEW-YORK11968
CayugaNEW-YORK11974
OrleansNEW-YORK12010
Canadice LNEW-YORK12012
MendonNEW-YORK12018
CastileNEW-YORK11969
RandolphNEW-YORK11982
NashvilleNEW-YORK11974
ByronNEW-YORK11996
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK12005
PulaskiNEW-YORK11986
N WilmurtNEW-YORK11997
OneidaNEW-YORK12009
SalemNEW-YORK11972
North EastonNEW-YORK11977

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.