BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Barn Owl In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

American Barn Owl in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

-58%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Barn Owl has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

American Barn Owl In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Barn Owl in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Barn Owl in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.020.000.06
20250.020.000.06
20260.020.000.06
20270.020.000.06
20280.020.000.06

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording American Barn Owl in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Green SwampFLORIDA32006
ShawanoFLORIDA22002
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA12015
Boca RatonFLORIDA11980
AndytownFLORIDA11982
Pleasant GrFLORIDA11996
DavieFLORIDA11987
HomesteadFLORIDA12013
ClewistonFLORIDA12023
Shawano 2FLORIDA12007
Holey LandFLORIDA12014
Dupuis W.E.AFLORIDA12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.