BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Barn Owl In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

American Barn Owl in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

-15%Since 1989TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Barn Owl in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Barn Owl in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Barn Owl in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19872028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.030.000.09
20250.030.000.09
20260.030.000.09
20270.030.000.08
20280.030.000.08

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording American Barn Owl in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WeinertTEXAS21993
WilliamsTEXAS22004
WellingtonKANSAS12004
DaltonKANSAS12012
AshlandKANSAS12005
CovertKANSAS11994
ArthurNEBRASKA12010
Crescent LkNEBRASKA12017
RandlettOKLAHOMA11992
Eagle CityOKLAHOMA11989
ErickOKLAHOMA12023
LookoutOKLAHOMA12010
RosstonOKLAHOMA12004
SicklesOKLAHOMA12017
HunterOKLAHOMA12017
JetOKLAHOMA11994
RotanTEXAS12015
Beaver CreekTEXAS11998
CharlieTEXAS12009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.