BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Barn Owl In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

American Barn Owl in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 82% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

+82%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Barn Owl in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

American Barn Owl In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Barn Owl in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.06 (95% range 0.01–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±109.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Barn Owl in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.06 (95% range 0.01–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19892026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.050.010.10
20230.050.010.10
20240.060.010.10
20250.060.010.10
20260.060.010.10

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording American Barn Owl in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PanhandleTEXAS32011
CheyenneCOLORADO22011
KirkCOLORADO22003
BenkelmanNEBRASKA22008
KeyesOKLAHOMA21997
CircleTEXAS22019
MidlandTEXAS22007
TwichellTEXAS22004
GilpinCOLORADO11989
Two ButtesCOLORADO12010
CrowleyCOLORADO12009
FlaglerCOLORADO12008
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO11999
PlymellKANSAS12016
GrigstonKANSAS12011
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO12018
ClovisNEW-MEXICO12016
PepNEW-MEXICO12006
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO12007
San SimonNEW-MEXICO11992
PostTEXAS12010
PlainsTEXAS12019
TexlineTEXAS12018
WakaTEXAS12015
FloydadaTEXAS12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.