BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Alder Flycatcher In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestAerial insectivores

Alder Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest has held roughly steady: down 6% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

-6%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Alder Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Alder Flycatcher In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 43% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.58Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 43% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.590.001.3
20270.590.001.3
20280.580.001.3
20290.580.001.3
20300.580.001.3

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Alder Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Elmendorf (Short)ALASKA731985
Sheep MtnALASKA482025
Alpenglow (Short)ALASKA292012
HopeALASKA152025
Moose PassALASKA81992
CordovaALASKA52024
Harlequin L.ALASKA52024
YakutatALASKA42025
Thompson PasALASKA32025
SewardALASKA21992
HainesALASKA22025
HyderALASKA22009
Copper RiverALASKA22011
JuneauALASKA12021
CraigALASKA12022
KetchikanALASKA12009
Thorne BayALASKA12004
Mitkof IsleALASKA12023
Zimovia StrtALASKA12023
HoonahALASKA12022
Whale PassALASKA12013
SkagwayALASKA12014
ZaremboALASKA12019
Chichagof IsALASKA12005
Kenai Lake (Short)ALASKA11984

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.