BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Alder Flycatcher In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestAerial insectivores

Alder Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

-21%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Alder Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.53Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.540.001.3
20260.540.001.3
20270.540.001.3
20280.540.001.3
20290.530.001.3

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Alder Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Elmendorf (Short)ALASKA731985
Alpenglow (Short)ALASKA292012
HopeALASKA232024
Sheep MtnALASKA182017
Thompson PasALASKA112024
Moose PassALASKA81992
CordovaALASKA52024
YakutatALASKA52024
Harlequin L.ALASKA52024
HainesALASKA32023
SewardALASKA21992
HyderALASKA22009
Copper RiverALASKA22011
JuneauALASKA12021
CraigALASKA12022
KetchikanALASKA12009
Thorne BayALASKA12004
Mitkof IsleALASKA12023
Zimovia StrtALASKA12023
HoonahALASKA12022
Whale PassALASKA12013
SkagwayALASKA12014
ZaremboALASKA12019
Chichagof IsALASKA12005
Kenai Lake (Short)ALASKA11984

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.