BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Alder Flycatcher In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Alder Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition has increased: up 43% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+43%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
114Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Alder Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Alder Flycatcher In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 35% by 2030 — from 0.54 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.37–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.73Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.37–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±84.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 35% by 2030 — from 0.54 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.37–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.710.351.1
20270.720.361.1
20280.720.361.1
20290.730.371.1
20300.730.371.1

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Alder Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA92025
EvergreenMINNESOTA62025
GilmantonWISCONSIN52010
Chippewa Lk.MICHIGAN42025
GrimmsWISCONSIN42021
Brook ParkMINNESOTA32025
CumberlandWISCONSIN32025
MerrillWISCONSIN32025
OmroWISCONSIN32001
Buena VistaWISCONSIN32022
Big RapidsMICHIGAN21990
RemusMICHIGAN22025
St CharlesMICHIGAN21986
No BradleyMICHIGAN21994
FowlervilleMICHIGAN22018
AdairMICHIGAN21992
HungerfordMICHIGAN22025
MillvilleMINNESOTA22017
KnappMINNESOTA22004
DresserWISCONSIN22023
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN22024
HolwayWISCONSIN21988
HatfieldWISCONSIN21997
MatherWISCONSIN22023
Stevens PtWISCONSIN22022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.