BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Alder Flycatcher In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Alder Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition has increased: up 35% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+35%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
113Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Alder Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Alder Flycatcher In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 161% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.38–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±102.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+161%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.74Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.38–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±102.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 161% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.38–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±102.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.720.361.1
20260.730.371.1
20270.730.371.1
20280.740.381.1
20290.740.381.1

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Alder Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MerrillWISCONSIN62024
GilmantonWISCONSIN52010
EvergreenMINNESOTA42024
Brook ParkMINNESOTA42024
LoraineWISCONSIN42021
GrimmsWISCONSIN42021
OmroWISCONSIN32001
Buena VistaWISCONSIN32022
Big RapidsMICHIGAN21990
St CharlesMICHIGAN21986
No BradleyMICHIGAN21994
FowlervilleMICHIGAN22018
AdairMICHIGAN21992
Chippewa Lk.MICHIGAN22023
MillvilleMINNESOTA22017
KnappMINNESOTA22004
DresserWISCONSIN22023
CumberlandWISCONSIN22024
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN22024
HolwayWISCONSIN21988
HatfieldWISCONSIN21997
MatherWISCONSIN22023
Stevens PtWISCONSIN22022
EdenWISCONSIN22024
Mount HorebWISCONSIN21983

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.